The Signal and the Noise

Review The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t

by NATE SILVER

Description

Nate Silver, who was known for constructing a predicting system that managed to give accurate results, provides us with an insight into his work through his book “The Signal and the Noise,” he brings to light the reasons why certain bold claims and predictions tend to be on the path to inaccuracy. Furthermore, and introduced along with his innovative prediction system in the spotlight, he expounds on the predictions that did end up to be in the right. With a detailed insight on the human brain and its weak grasp on probability and uncertainty, he shows how easy it is for experts and laymen alike to fall into.

“The Signal and the Noise” takes examples from real-life events to better prove his points in this witty, well-written book, providing invaluable knowledge to readers and aspiring analysts and investors how to determine which event indicates a true signal and which one is just background noise.

About the Author

Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in New York.

Table of Contents

• Preface to the Paper
• Introduction
  1. A Catastrophic Failure of Prediction
  2. Are You Smarter than a Television Pundit
  3. All I Care About is W’s and L’s
  4. For Years You’ve Been Telling Us That Rain is Green
  5. Desperately Seeking Signal
  6. How to Drown in Three Feet of Water
  7. Role Models
  8. Less and Less and Less Wrong
  9. Rage Against the Machines
  10. The Poker Bubble
  11. If You Can’t Beat ‘Em…
  12. A Climate of Health Skepticism
  13. What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You
• Conclusion
• Acknowledgments
• Notes
• Index