Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Review Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

by PHILIP E. TETLOCK & DAN GARDNER

Description

Predicting the future has always been attributed to either the smart or the paranormal – though, on a financial level, it is a skill that may be possible to forecast a given market trend. Whether it be trading stocks or investing in a startup, Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner’s “Superforecasting” unlocks the secret to how economists and analysts alike have harnessed the power of incredible foresight ahead of a trend even before the first market signals. Furthermore, “Superforecasting” reveals what factors go into making predictions and if the technique is possible to be learned by just anyone. This book is a great inside look into the mind of some of the most legendary market predictions, removing the mysteries of peeking into the future and provides readers with a groundbreaking guide to be able to harness the powers of probability. 

About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.
 
Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk and Future Babble: Why Pundits are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.

Table of Contents

1. An Optimistic Skeptic
2. Illusions of Knowledge
3. Keeping Score
4. Superforecasters
5. Supersmart?
6. Superquants?
7. Suprnewsjunkies?
8. Perpetual Beta
9. Perpetual Beta
10. Superteams
11. The Leader’s Dilemma
12. Are They Really So Super?
13. What’s Next?
    • Epilogue
      • An Invitation
      • Appendix Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters
      • Acknowledgments
      • Notes
      • Index